Netherlands Elections: Major Parties and Central Topics in Early Election
Voters in the Netherlands are preparing to possibly exchange the most rightwing government in recent memory with a more moderate and pragmatic alliance during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for 29 October.
The Situation and Its Significance
Early legislative elections were triggered after the collapse of the previous administration in June, when rightwing politician the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an increasingly fractious and largely ineffective governing alliance.
Wilders' party had achieved a surprising first place in the previous general election, and after extended negotiations established a fragile four-party conservative alliance with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, NSC party and liberal-conservative VVD.
However, Wilders' coalition partners considered him too controversial for the premier position, which was given to a ex-security head. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic commentator who has required security detail for two decades, resorted to criticizing from the sidelines.
He ultimately triggered the government collapse on June 3 after his partners refused to adopt a radical comprehensive immigration restriction proposal that included using military forces to guard frontiers, turning back all refugee applicants, closing most refugee hostels and sending home all Syria nationals.
Although support for the PVV has decreased, surveys suggest the rightwing, anti-Islam party is again likely to secure the largest representation in parliament. But, main Dutch political parties have collectively rejected entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
At least 16 parties are predicted to enter parliament, but none is projected to win more than approximately 20% of the vote. As usual, the future Netherlands administration, typically an influential player on the European and global scene, will be formed following alliance talks that could take several months.
How the System Works and Party Environment
The parliament contains 150 MPs in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a administration requires 76 seats to form a majority. No single party typically achieves this, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments for over 100 years.
Representatives are chosen every four years β sooner when governments collapse β through party-list system, based on an approved list of contenders in a country-wide district: any political group that secures 0.67% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.
As in many European nations, Dutch politics have been marked in recent decades by a sharp decline in support for the historical ruling parties from the moderate right and left, whose share of the vote has decreased from over four-fifths in the eighties to just over 40% now.
Domestically, this process has been paralleled by a spectacular proliferation of smaller parties: 27 are running this time, including a senior citizens' party, a party for youth, a party for animals, a basic income advocacy group, and a sports-focused party.
Major Parties and Main Issues
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, forecast to lose up to eight of the 37 seats it won in 2023. It advocates, among other policies, a total moratorium on asylum, male Ukrainian refugees to be returned, the army to combat "street terrorists", and an termination to "progressive education" in schools.
Two political groups, of the centre-right and centre-left, are closely competing after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Dutch politics from the late 1970s to the beginning of the nineties, and once more in the early 2000s, but dropped to only five mandates in the last election.
However, under Henri Bontenbal, its promising new figure, who joined political life only four years ago, the party has recovered strongly with a electoral platform emphasizing the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a promise of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is on course for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the green party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is expected to become a full-blown merger, is on track to secure comparable seats, according to polling averages.
Led by the seasoned former European commissioner its leader, it has made building more new homes its primary focus, and has debatedly proposed a immigration limit of between forty to sixty thousand people a year in its manifesto.
Three additional groups appear set to be important players in the next legislature.
The liberal-progressive D66 is projected to increase representation β capturing up to 17, from its current nine β under its straight-talking young leader, with a campaign centred on housing (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "personal minimum income" for claimants.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the party of the former prime minister (now Nato chief), is forecast to decline to at most 16 seats from its current 24, with its head, accused of moving the group excessively rightward, blamed for its decrease. It is promising business tax cuts and reduced social benefits.
The populist, strictly rightwing JA21 is a spin-off from a different rightwing formation β the previously successful, now controversy-plagued Forum for Democracy β and appears to be profiting from an departure of voters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could secure fourteen mandates.
In addition to the two main rightwing parties, both remaining members in the unsuccessful previous government, the farmer and centrist parties, are expected to lose out, with the NSC not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The primary concerns so far have been immigration, with several β sometimes violent β protests against proposed asylum facilities for asylum seekers, the cost of living, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the country is short of 400,000 homes).
Potential New Government
Considering the deeply divided state of Dutch politics, what alliances are feasible is just as important as who wins the election (or in this case, more likely second, since no significant group will govern with Wilders, who insists he wants to head a minority administration).
Following the vote, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores possible alliances. Once a viable coalition has been found, a formateur, usually the head of the largest potential partner, begins negotiating the formal coalition agreement. This can take months.
Various combinations look plausible, most involving a mix of political groups from centre left and moderate right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus D66 and one or more minor groups possibly incorporating JA21.
